Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 at 2015 Levels: A Compelling Entry Point

After a substantial three-year correction, fine wine is now trading at its most attractive level in more than a decade. The opportunity, however, is neither confined to one region nor evenly spread across the market. We see compelling value in mature blue-chip Bordeaux, selected recent En Primeur releases, leading Burgundy and prestige Champagne.

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 is the broadest measure of the fine wine market, tracking 1,000 of the most actively traded wines across Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne, the Rhône, Italy and the Rest of the World.From its peak in late 2022 to its September 2025 trough, the index fell 28.3%, fully reversing the gains made during the Covid-era rally. In nominal terms, the Liv-ex 1000 returned to its 2020 lows. Adjusted for inflation, the decline was even greater at 37.2%, taking the market back to levels last seen in 2015.

For existing collectors, the correction has undoubtedly been uncomfortable. For investors putting new capital to work, it represents a very different proposition: today’s buyer is entering after a meaningful market reset rather than at the top of a cycle.

Fine wine and the S&P 500

Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 and S&P 500, rebased at 100. Source: Liv-ex.

Although fine wine and equities are not directly comparable asset classes, the chart illustrates how competitive fine wine’s long-term performance had been before the recent downturn.

For much of the period leading up to 2022, the Liv-ex 1000 held its own against the S&P 500 and, at times, moved significantly ahead of it. The sharp divergence since then reflects both the strength of US equities and the extent of fine wine’s correction.

That gap does not guarantee an immediate recovery. It does, however, demonstrate how much valuation has already been removed from the fine wine market.

Where are the opportunities?

A falling index does not automatically make every wine attractive. The opportunity depends on the relationship between price, quality, available supply, back-vintage alternatives and underlying buyer demand (and where we come in - access).

Within Bordeaux, value is now emerging at both ends of the vintage spectrum.

For buyers seeking mature stock, wines from the early 2000s are increasingly interesting. Many are now entering or approaching their drinking windows, meaning much of the long wait to maturity has already passed. At the same time, available stock should naturally decline as bottles are opened and consumed.

These wines have also had considerably longer to establish their secondary-market pricing. Stock has been dispersed among merchants, collectors and investors around the world, while prices have had ample time to adjust through different market cycles.

This creates an increasingly attractive combination of:

• Substantial bottle age and immediate drinking relevance
• Diminishing long-term supply
• Established global demand
• Greater liquidity and typically tighter spreads
• Prices at or close to decade-long lows

Importantly, this does not mean that opportunity is confined to older vintages.

The 2024 and 2025 Bordeaux En Primeur campaigns have seen a significant recalibration in release pricing, with selected wines offered materially below their 2023/2022 equivalents. Where quality is strong and the release price compares favourably with available back vintages, these younger wines can provide a separate and equally valid route to long-term value.

The distinction is not simply between mature and young wine. It is between wines that are attractively priced relative to their quality and supply, and those that still need further adjustment.

Liv-ex’s trading data supports the case for mature Bordeaux. The bid-to-offer ratio for First Growths from 2000–2005 has risen above 2, while the ratio for 2006–2010 stands at approximately 1.7. For vintages from 2020 onwards, it is closer to 0.7.

In simple terms, demand currently appears much healthier relative to available supply among mature vintages. However, within the younger vintages, the substantial reduction in 2024 and 2025 release prices has created selective opportunities that should be judged individually rather than dismissed as part of the wider market overhang.

Lafite Rothschild 2000: a striking example

Chateau Lafite Rothschild Premier Cru Classe, Pauillac, 2000

Château Lafite Rothschild 2000 has fallen below its 2008 market level. Source: Liv-ex

Château Lafite Rothschild 2000 provides one of the clearest examples of the market reset, although it is far from the only opportunity.

Despite being a landmark vintage from one of the world’s most recognised and liquid wine brands, its market price has fallen below the level recorded in 2008. According to Liv-ex, it is now the cheapest time to buy the wine in approximately 18 years.

This is precisely the type of opportunity we believe deserves attention: a mature First Growth with substantial bottle age, international demand and finite supply, available at a price last seen before nearly two decades of bottles were consumed.

Beyond Bordeaux: Burgundy and Champagne

The opportunity is not confined to Bordeaux. Burgundy and Champagne were among the market’s strongest-performing regions during the period leading up to 2022 and have subsequently undergone meaningful corrections of their own.

Burgundy

The case for Burgundy rests primarily on structural scarcity.Production from the leading vineyards is inherently limited, while allocations from the most sought-after domaines remain exceptionally small. The recent correction has brought a number of blue-chip wines back to materially lower entry points without changing those fundamental supply constraints.

Demand for the best producers remains international, while the amount of genuinely available stock is often extremely limited. As mature bottles are consumed, they cannot be replaced, particularly in older vintages from producers whose allocations have become increasingly difficult to secure.

Burgundy nevertheless requires considerable selectivity. Producer, vineyard, vintage, provenance and liquidity all matter, and the difference between the strongest opportunities and the wider market can be substantial.

Our preference is therefore for established domaines and recognised vineyards where scarcity is genuine, pricing has corrected meaningfully and international demand has already been demonstrated.

Champagne

Champagne offers a different but complementary opportunity.

The Champagne market has also corrected significantly from its peak, bringing a number of leading prestige cuvées and mature vintages back to more attractive levels.

These wines benefit from powerful global brands, broad international distribution and genuine consumption demand.That final point is particularly important. Every mature bottle opened permanently reduces the remaining supply. This creates a natural depletion mechanism that is especially relevant for older vintages, rare releases, discontinued cuvées and large formats.

The leading Champagne houses also have a consumer base extending well beyond traditional fine wine collectors. Their wines are purchased for drinking, gifting, hospitality and celebration around the world, providing a breadth of demand that few other wine regions can replicate.

Here too, selectivity is essential. We favour leading houses, prestige cuvées and genuinely scarce releases where global brand strength and declining availability can support prices over the medium to long term.

Selective rather than indiscriminate

We are not suggesting that the entire fine wine market is about to rebound in unison. Recovery is likely to remain selective, and patience will still be required.

Nor are we drawing a simple dividing line between mature and recent vintages. The opportunity lies in buying the right wine at the right price.

Our preference is for:

• Mature Bordeaux from established estates at or close to historic price floors
• Selected 2024 and 2025 Bordeaux En Primeur releases where pricing has been materially recalibrated
• Blue-chip Burgundy from leading domaines at significantly corrected levels
• Prestige and scarce Champagne with strong global demand and liquidity
• Wines with healthy secondary-market liquidity and realistic exit markets
• Stock with excellent provenance, condition and original packaging (these are non-negotiables)

Mature wines offer bottle age, established market histories and naturally diminishing supply. Properly priced recent releases offer the opportunity to acquire high-quality wines at the beginning of their lifecycle, particularly where producers have responded to the market by reducing prices substantially.

Both can be attractive. The determining factor is valuation.

Our view

The fine wine market has undergone a substantial reset. In nominal terms, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 is back at its 2020 lows. Adjusted for inflation, it has returned to levels last seen in 2015.

The resulting opportunity extends across regions and vintages.

Mature Bordeaux offers bottle age, liquidity and increasingly limited supply. The 2024 and 2025 En Primeur campaigns have introduced selectively priced younger wines following a significant recalibration from 2023. Burgundy offers exceptional structural scarcity, while Champagne combines global brand recognition with genuine consumption-led depletion and therefore strong liquidity. 

This is not a call for a rapid, market-wide rebound. It is an opportunity to acquire carefully selected, high-quality stock at materially lower entry points.

For medium-to-long-term buyers, a diversified selection across mature and correctly priced Bordeaux, blue-chip Burgundy and leading Champagne now offers a compelling combination of value, scarcity, liquidity and global demand. After three years of falling prices, the balance between risk and potential reward looks considerably more attractive than it did at the market peak.

If you would like to discuss this further please get in contact

Written by Martin Docherty, Senior Advisor at Cellar Advisor.